MP Materials $MP jumped 500% in 2025. 

This isn't a stock story, it's a signal that the global resource war between the U.S. and China just entered a new phase.

Here's what we know: MP Materials hit $95.06 on October 13 after announcing a $400 million Pentagon contract and $500 million from Apple. The stock's up over 500% YTD. 

But that gap matters more than you might think.

JPMorgan just committed $1.5 trillion over ten years to critical minerals, including up to $10 billion in direct equity stakes.

This is structural, not cyclical.

China controls 90% of global rare earth processing. 

The U.S. imports 70% of its rare earths from China. An F-35 fighter jet contains 417 kilograms of rare earth elements. When China tightened export controls on October 9, adding five more elements to its restricted list, it wasn't subtle—it was deliberate leverage ahead of the Trump-Xi meeting later this month.

Copper tells a similar story. 

The USGS proposed adding copper to the 2025 critical minerals list for the first time since 2018. Solar and wind facilities use 6-12 times more copper than fossil fuel plants. 

By 2030, the US is projected to need an estimated 1 million metric tons of copper just to power data centers.

One EV contains 80 kilograms of copper, 2-4 times more than a conventional car. Demand will climb from 25 million tons in 2024 to 37 million tons by 2050. 

Wood Mackenzie and McKinsey project a 6-10 million ton annual copper deficit by 2035, roughly 30% of forecast demand. 

For rare earths, Macquarie sees the neodymium-praseodymium market in deficit: 6 kilotons in 2026, narrowing to 0.5 kilotons in 2027. 

By 2035, the rare earth deficit could hit 60 kilotons, or 30% of projected demand.

Trump and Xi could reach a tactical compromise at the APEC summit. 

The U.S. rolls back some tariffs; China eases rare earth export restrictions. 

MP Materials corrects 15-25% from peak as supply panic fades. 

VanEck Rare Earth ETF ($REMX ( ▼ 1.48% )), up 92.3% YTD and 136% from its low, consolidates in the $12-15 range. 

Global X Copper Miners ETF ($COPX ( ▼ 0.56% )) holds gains due to structural deficit independent of geopolitics.

Investment approach: Lock in 30-40% profits on speculative positions. Hold core exposure in fundamentally strong names like MP Materials and Lynas. Increase copper as a structural bet.

Morgan Stanley set an MP Materials price target at $69 with an Equal Weight rating. Consensus sits at $80.12, with a range of $68-103. 

Macquarie expects NdPr prices to reach $120/kg by late 2026 or early 2027, supporting a 10% annual demand growth rate over five years driven by 15% CAGR from EVs and 30% from robotics.

The summit ends without a breakthrough. 

The U.S. and China build parallel supply chains. Export controls remain in place on both sides. 

MP Materials $MP ( ▼ 2.82% ) trades in the $85-110 range through 2026 with periodic volatility spikes.

$REMX ( ▼ 1.48% ) holds 80-100% YTD gains on structural deficit and government capital.$COPX ( ▼ 0.56% ) climbs 38-50% as the 1.84 million ton deficit by 2030 becomes consensus.

Investment approach: 50% core position in diversified ETFs ($REMX ( ▼ 1.48% ), $SETM ( ▼ 1.46% ), $COPX ( ▼ 0.56% )). 

30% in established producers (MP Materials, Lynas, Freeport-McMoRan). 20% of developers with compelling risk-reward profiles (Arafura, Hastings). 

For dysprosium specifically, the deficit could reach 2.8-23 tons by 2034, with prices potentially rising 340-450%.

Trump imposes 100% tariffs on all Chinese goods. 

China bans rare earth exports for U.S. defense and extends controls to cobalt, lithium, and graphite. 

$MP ( ▼ 2.82% ) spikes to $150-200 in short-term supply panic. 

$REMX ( ▼ 1.48% ) doubles to $25-30 within 6-12 months. Ford and GM halt EV production due to magnet shortages, similar to what happened in May 2025. 

The Pentagon activates $1 billion in stockpiles ($500 million in cobalt, $245 million in antimony).

Gracelin Baskaran at CSIS described this as "a shortage of chips on steroids, with massive production shutdowns in the auto industry."

Investment approach: Aggressive overweight on rare earths and critical minerals. Avoid Chinese producers. Focus on the U.S., Australia, Canada.

AI data centers will require 250-550 kilotons of copper annually by 2030. 

Rare earth demand will triple from 59 kilotons in 2022 to 176 kilotons by 2035. 

Charles Cooper at Wood Mackenzie put it directly: "If governments and investors don't act, we risk turning the metal of electrification into the metal of scarcity."

The U.S. is moving. Trump's March 20 executive order invoked wartime emergency powers to accelerate mining. NEPA restrictions were lifted on June 30, cutting permit timelines from the world's second-worst average of 29 years. 

The US government now holds direct equity in MP Materials, Trilogy Metals, Intel, and Critical Metals in Greenland.

But problems remain.

60% of projects face delays due to permitting, opposition, or environmental concerns. A project with $3-5 billion in capex loses $20 million in NPV every week of delay. 

MP Materials' "10X Facility" won't come online until 2028.

China's October 9 export controls added five new elements (holmium, erbium, thulium, europium, ytterbium) to its restricted list—now twelve total. 

The rules have extraterritorial reach: foreign companies using Chinese materials need licenses even for production outside China. Direct targets include defense contractors and semiconductor manufacturers.

But China has vulnerabilities. Its September military parade showcased full vertical integration in defense—a nuclear triad of DF-41, DF-31, hypersonic Yingi-21 missiles, and high-energy lasers, all domestically produced.

Yet Huawei still lags Nvidia by "nanoseconds" in chip performance, though the gap is closing. DeepSeek demonstrated that China can train AI models with lower costs and fewer chips. Expert estimates give China five years to achieve independence from U.S. technology.

Short-term (3-6 months):

Long-term (3-7 years):

Technological substitution could reduce demand for specific metals. Copper coil motors might replace rare earth magnets in some applications. Copper recycling could cover part of the deficit, though not enough. Probability: low due to material physics constraints.

China could increase production quotas to crash prices and force Western producers out. Surpluses in 2023-2024 (129 kilotons and 153 kilotons) already created volatility. Probability: medium for rare earths, low for copper.

Regulatory blockades remain a threat. Environmental groups have stopped projects for decades. 45% of delays stem from permitting. Probability: high without further deregulation.

It's a signal that control over resources equals control over technology equals control over the future.

The U.S. is 20 years behind but moving with unprecedented speed through government capital, deregulation, and military funding. China is fortifying its position through economic coercion.

Three questions for your portfolio: Do you have exposure to critical minerals? If not, you're missing a 10-20 year structural megatrend. Are you diversified across metals? Copper is the safe bet. Rare earths are high risk/high reward. Both are necessary. Are you ready for volatility? These aren't buy-and-hold sectors. This requires tactical rebalancing every 3-6 months.

For those thinking in decades, not days, there's long-term upside here.

The question remains open: will the U.S. build reliable supply chains before the next crisis hits? Your portfolio should be ready for both scenarios.

Disclaimer: This is not financial or investment advice. Do your own research and consult a qualified financial advisor before investing.