Trump Says America Doesn't Need Hormuz Oil — Markets Disagree Violently

Central Banks Resetting Monetary System (from Anchor Point Research)

Key Points

Markets dismissed Trump’s claim, pricing in Hormuz supply risks.
Oil jumped 7%+ while major U.S. indices fell.
USO hit a 52-week high, signaling institutional hedging.
Gas above $4 and falling approval show rising costs.
Most Americans won’t see this coming until it’s too late (from Reagan Gold Group)

Trump's 'No Need' for Hormuz Oil — Market Says Otherwise President Trump's prime-time address promising continued strikes on Iran for 2-3 weeks triggered a sharp market reversal, with oil surging over 7% and major indices falling as investors priced in a global supply chain risk despite his claim that the U.S. "doesn't need" oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Within hours, S&P 500 futures sank 1.6% before trading while the Dow Jones pointed to a 0.9% decline, as Brent crude rose 7.4% to $108.69 per barrel and WTI climbed 7.1% to $107.24, with WTI futures briefly spiking 10% to $110.21 a barrel. This volatility coincided with the United States Oil Fund (USO) shares trading at a new 52-week high, even as Trump's approval rating dropped 4 percentage points to 35 percent in a latest YouGov survey amid rising gas prices.

The Market Reaction

The immediate response from financial markets following President Trump's address on Iran's nuclear program was swift and severe, according to CBS.

Geopolitical tensions, such as those surrounding Iran's nuclear program, can have immediate and far-reaching effects on financial markets. Investors are quick to adjust their portfolios in response to perceived risks, leading to significant price movements in major indices and commodities. The impact of geopolitical events on financial markets can be profound and long-lasting, shaping the investment landscape for months to come.

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The ETF Signal

As oil prices surged following Trump's address, the United States Oil Fund (USO) hit a new 52-week high, signaling a significant shift in institutional positioning. The USO's surge indicates that investors are actively hedging against potential supply disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz.

The technical analysis of the USO reveals a bullish trend. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has mostly trended in the neutral range with periodic pushes into overbought territory, suggesting the ETF is experiencing strong buying pressure.

The price of United States Oil Fund shares was up 10.77% at $137.46 at the time of reporting, and the USO is likely to test resistance levels in the coming days. As geopolitical tensions escalate, investors are seeking safe havens, leading to increased demand for commodities like oil.

This trend is likely to continue as long as the situation in the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain. Investors should closely monitor the USO and other energy-related ETFs to gauge how institutional investors are positioning themselves in the face of geopolitical risks.

The Political & Economic Cost

The political and economic cost of the Trump administration's Iran policy is becoming increasingly apparent as gas prices exceed $4 for the first time since 2022.

The YouGov survey reveals the growing public concern over the economic repercussions of the escalating conflict. Gas prices have climbed to over $4, a stark reminder of the financial strain on American consumers.

The Trump administration's claims of no impact on the global economy appear to be at odds with the reality on the ground. With gas prices reaching a level not seen since 2022, the administration's assurances ring hollow, and economic anxiety is only likely to grow as the Iran policy takes a toll on both the economy and public opinion.

Why Your Portfolio Needs Attention Now

If the market is pricing in a longer conflict than the President admits, asset classes will remain volatile. Energy-related ETFs could stay in overbought territory, creating risk for investors holding concentrated positions.

The USO's 52-week high and the broader oil surge reflect capital rotating into energy assets faster than the fundamentals justify. Monitoring geopolitical developments will be essential in navigating the uncertainties ahead.

Stay calm. Stay focused.