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Sam Altman-backed Oklo just lost over $5 billion in market value in seven days.
What happened to one of the US’ hottest nuclear startups?
The numbers don't lie.
Oklo shares crashed from $193.84 on October 15 to roughly $116.40 by October 22, about 29% wipeout in a single week.
This follows a 900% surge since January that pushed valuation past $20 billion. The problem?
Zero revenue, no operating licenses, no binding contracts.
Reality Hits
Financial Times published their investigation. Political connections, missing regulatory approvals, collapsed deals.
This is a parabola. I'm urging you to take something off the table right here. It's just gone too far, too fast… Oklo has yet to book a dime of revenue!
The market responded exactly as expected.
Cathie Wood's ARK Invest sold $8.5 million worth of shares after a 649% gain.
When one of tech's biggest bulls exits, other funds pay attention.
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The Parabola That Broke
In September, the U.S. energy department had selected Oklo for its pilot program to build advanced nuclear fuel lines as part of the Trump administration's strategy to secure domestic supply chains.
On October 17, Oklo announced a $2 billion partnership with European nuclear developer newcleo to build advanced fuel infrastructure in the U.S.
CEO Jacob DeWitte called it a solution to "eliminate a legacy liability while creating an abundant near-term fuel source" by repurposing surplus plutonium.
Secretary of Interior Doug Burgum praised it as "another win for President Trump's American Energy Dominance Agenda."
$OKLO ( ▼ 3.36% ) barely moved. Investors saw through the headlines.
A fuel partnership doesn't generate revenue or solve the fundamental problem: Oklo burns $52.1 million annually with $226 million in cash reserves.
That's roughly four years of runway.
Analysts’ Comments
Analyst consensus tells the full story.
Average price targets sit between $82.80 and $109.36, implying another 27% to 31% downside from current levels.
Of 26 analysts covering the stock, 13 rate it Buy, 13 say Hold, zero recommend Sell.
Analysts estimate Oklo won't turn profitable until 2030, with revenue potentially hitting $1 billion by 2031.
Current market value? Nearly $24 billion. That's an optimistic bet on a company that might not see meaningful revenue for six years.
In September 2025, a BofA analyst downgraded $OKLO ( ▼ 3.36% ) and expressed worry that the company's valuation left "little room for error."
Progress Without Proof
Oklo has made genuine regulatory progress.
In July 2025, Oklo completed the NRC's readiness assessment.
In September, the NRC accepted its design criteria report.
Oklo plans to submit its formal license application later this year, targeting late 2027 for its first operational reactor.
But progress isn't approved.
The NRC denied Oklo's previous application in January 2022.
The company has 14 gigawatts in letters of intent, none binding.
The Bottom Line
The nuclear renaissance is real.
Data centers need power, AI demands more energy, and regulatory reforms are making licensing faster. The Trump administration is pushing hard on domestic energy.
But sector momentum doesn't guarantee individual company success.
Oklo needs operating licenses, signed contracts, and a path to cash flow. Until then, $OKLO ( ▼ 3.36% ) trades on narrative, and that narrative just broke.
For investors who bought at $193, this is an expensive education in fundamentals versus hype.
Analysts see another 27-31% drop ahead.
The easy money is gone.
What happens next depends entirely on execution.
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